“Corona” or “Covid-19” dominates all of our lives. All. Companies, private individuals, public corporations, banks, financial markets, economic systems, politics, states – no matter which perspective you want to apply, everyone is affected. Because we are all “the system”. In a nutshell: Our known world order with all its currently functioning systems is being put to the test … and the report does not seem to be a good one. But that was to be expected for a long time, wasn’t it?
If you keep the definition of a crisis in mind, then from a systemic point of view it is, so to speak, the hardship that inevitably has to come at the end of a long-lasting paradigm in order to destroy this old paradigm and to usher in a so-called trend reversal that leads into a new age . As long as there is no need, systems remain in their old state. One speaks of the autopoiesis of systems – the function or art of maintaining oneself, of renewing, of being able to adapt, of surviving.
Long-lasting. What does this mean? First of all, we have to say goodbye to our beloved linear thought patterns in the systemic view, which have made it so mathematically convenient for us to calculate things in advance. You know that. “Annually 5% increase in turnover, 3% improvement in earnings, etc.” … Sounds nice, can be calculated well even without studying mathematics, and such a straight increase looks promising! Always nice to the top, always consistently higher. An optical illusion.
Bye Bye linearity. Welcome S-curve models! If the “Corona crisis” should at least bring us something useful – quite apart from the fact that we learn to wash hands and how to deal with hygiene – then at least the wonderful projections of the epidemic behavior with the infection curve, which we should keep flat. So if something increases progressively, we hope to overcome the mountain with regulators and good advance control and come into degression. We are happy about the degression there. Just like when hiking, when it’s flat after a hard ascent, and at some point back to the valley. But why do we deny this dynamic in our economics? Also only part of the overall system. Therefore the same mechanisms apply. But a degression and mostly followed depression have catastrophic effects that we will all soon experience.
If you take the theory of the Russian economist Nikolai Kondratjew as an illustration, the so-called “Kondratjew Cycles”, he describes this very clearly with his ” Theory of Long Waves “. Apart from the fact that seven fat years and seven lean years are already written in the Bible, which suggest an S-curve development, we are also familiar with terms from the media such as economic upswing and impending recessions. About in such seven year cycles. With his theory of long waves, Kondratjew shows that there are such large waves superimposed on it – around every 70 years. Like tsunamis. Destructive. With damage and collateral damage. Notable changes. For history books.
Where are we on the curve ? Everything in life is a matter of consideration. So it depends on what we want to look at. Which system. What parameters. Which curve is used to describe a development from point A to point B. Under which question do you want to apply the observation? What is this aiming at? It’s complex.
It is complex, yes . But not complicated. With our globalization, we have created a highly complex networked world. For decades at least. We have networked, entangled, linked, entangled. Nothing that you can simply stop worldwide with a “world pause button” and then continue playing at the same point with play. Not even across Europe as you can see. Not even within a nation-state. Because there are just so many interactions. The parameter among each other in the system. The subsystems in a system. The different systems to each other. This is highly complex, not easy to grasp and portray. But basically not crazy complicated in the sense of complicated to calculate. It’s more relational and multidimensional.
Who has which crisis? So it begins with the question of the system to be considered. Do we want to look at this question with the huge macro glasses? Then come the observations of people under descriptions such as “The planet earth has come to an end and is taking revenge, etc.”. You can see it like that. If we want to look at it with the also important global social or global economic glasses, then there are similar descriptions, such as “we have exaggerated globalization” or “borders close – back to the nation states, away with the freedom to travel”. You can also look at the picture like this. Like a camera, where you can choose between a wide-angle lens for landscape shots or a zoom lens to look at your work of art down to the smallest detail in portraits. Both are equivalent and necessary. Both sensible and helpful if you know what you are observing and what result you want to produce. So you can just as easily look at the system with the purely medical lens. You will find completely different details what you want to pay attention to. For a doctor in the intensive care unit of a hospital, survival in this system is relevant. For the first time, the conditions of farmers in South America, which may deteriorate due to the falling demand for products in South America, are not given any space in this picture. Because only a section is zoomed out first. The rest is still there, and has effects and interactions on the overall system. The only important thing is to determine as an observer what you want to observe and how. And what that should aim at. Because the human being is ultimately a purposeful being. If you also want to communicate your own observations as your own truth, a common language between sender (observer) and receiver is required. Otherwise the picture will probably only remain a perception of the viewer. Nothing works in systems without communication. And that’s such a complex thing …
Change of perspective. So if we constantly talk, post, judge, etc. about the crisis or “Corona crisis”, then we should always think about what we are talking about when communicating. What we have included in our consideration. So if you want to use the macro view as the observation spectrum, and if you want to define the decades after World War II until today as the observation period, and also want to focus on aspects such as society, economy, environment and politics, you will quickly get to the point : “Covid-19” is a long-awaited trigger – but by no means the cause – for our current global system failure. I come to the cause / trigger / effect principle in a separate article. Because this hardship that we have, which needs to be averted, shows the limits we have long since reached in different systems of the overall system. For example, there is the economic paradigm of “capitalism”. We should have perceived its limits since the first systemic symptoms of illness in 2008 – often labeled as a financial or banking crisis – or perhaps even before that with the “.com” bubble as an “illness” or a flattened S-curve. Or the social question in terms of sustainability and ecological paradigms, which young generations in particular have been dealing with for some time in crisis mode. But also the political and economic systems of order such as the European Union, the failure of which as an “overall system” could have been observed in the last few years because the system may have simply become too big and heterogeneous. Or, or, or. There is hardly an area where we have not long since reached our limits and where it would be necessary to intervene in a future-oriented manner so that we do not continue to steer full throttle towards complete collapse.
Got the dog: Is the need already great enough? Would almost all organs fail if our world were a Covid-19 patient? And what then would be the concrete measures that would have to be prepared in the same way as our health system tries to avoid the catastrophe in the medical sector through forward-looking measures? Who is responsible for it? Specifies the direction / goal and who is responsible? Who is currently infected or who contributes to the spread of our global economy patient? Hasn’t we all been together over the last few decades (so there is no need to ask about patient zero)? Have we suppressed our symptoms for a long time, continued even though we were already sickly, denied the symptoms and were not prepared to withdraw from the ultimately meaningful, comfortable and familiar system? In an isolation that would be uncomfortable, the global complex networked effects of which we could not even grasp, nor do we all want / cannot participate. In addition, when the time horizon is actually completely unclear and we have no idea how we could do better worldwide after this phase of illness and recovery? Which medication or preventive precautionary measures would be needed in the future so that the world does not get sick again and we would have defeated the “enemy COVID-19 disease”? Who or what is our “virus” that has brought us to the end of the S-curve worldwide and has transformed us into a “new, better order” to turn and rethink? “Capitalism, the corporations, the rich, politics, society” are happy to come … in short: That’s us. Is there already a scenario what “the other / better” would be? And who should pay for that?
Sounds like a lot of complexity, ignorance, fear, insecurity, many possibilities, loss of comfort, destruction, chaos, renunciation, letting go. Is it, but also a chance? And all of this has to happen as “conversion during operation”, because “the show must go on” because there is no “world pause button”, no test system, no return button where we can correct our mistakes – no turning back if it does is not better. But according to GC Lichtenberg: “I don’t know whether it will get better if it is different. At least it has to be different if it is to get better.” Or?
From which perspective are you currently viewing our social crisis? How are you involved, confronted, confused? Let us take part in your perspective, add it to our world impact model. Write us your comment. Let’s Systhat!
